At the end of July 2021, a major heatwave occurred in Athens which was characterized by a marked increase in temperature and by an unusually long duration (11 days). During the same period, around 7 days after the beginning of the heatwave, an extensive forest fire started near the Athens area.
– We see that the major heatwave in Athens, overlapping to some extent with a forest fire episode in July and August 2021, was followed by a pronounced increase in mortality, says Professor Klea Katsouyanni at the University of Athens.
Figure: Temperature and number of deaths during summer 2021 in greater Athens area.
In the Figure we can see the daily and weekly temperature (oC) and the weekly change in total number of deaths compared to 2017-2020 (daily number of deaths are not yet available from the Hellenic Statistical Authority) for the Greater Athens area from May to September 2021. A vertical dotted line indicates the beginning of the fire episode.
– We observe that the weekly number of deaths is increased by as much as 80% a few days after the increase in temperature. Further investigation is ongoing to evaluate the separate/synergistic effect of temperature and the fire incident as well as the role of other variables that determine mortality, says Katsouyanni.
““We observe that the weekly number of deaths is increased by as much as 80% a few days after the increase in temperature””
An initial investigation of the number of deaths due to COVID shows that the peak does not coincide with a similar pattern of COVID-19 deaths.
IPCC: Strong mitigation will have a near term effect on surface temperature
The IPCC report on the physical science basis for climate change states that every additional 0.5°C of global warming causes clearly discernible increases in the intensity and frequency of hot extremes, including heatwaves.*
The report also states that if strong mitigation is applied from 2020 onward its effect on 20-year trends in global surface temperature would likely emerge during the near term (2021–2040), measured against an assumed non-mitigation scenario.*
In EXHAUSTION we study impacts of heat stress and contribute development of impact-based forecasting for the needs of the health sector. The article is based on the work done by the group from the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens: Sofia Zafeiratou, Antonis Analitis, Evangelia Samoli and Klea Katsouyanni.
*IPCC, AR6, WG1, Climate change 2021, Summary for Policymakers, IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM_final.pdf
Top photo: Constantinos Kollias/ Unsplash
Around 7 days after the beginning of the heatwave, an extensive forest fire started near the Athens area. Photo: Anasmeister/Unsplash
