Short-term association between air temperature and mortality in seven cities in Norway: A time series analysis

The association between ambient air temperature and mortality has not been assessed in Norway. This study aimed to quantify for seven Norwegian cities (Oslo, Bergen, Stavanger, Drammen, Fredrikstad, Trondheim and Tromsø) the non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases mortality burden due to non-optimal ambient temperatures.

March 2024

Fires as a source of annual ambient PM2.5 exposure and chronic health impacts in Europe

Chronic exposure to air pollution (ambient PM2.5) is the largest environmental health risk in Europe. We used a chemical transport model and recent exposure response functions to simulate ambient PM2.5, contribution from fires and related health impacts over Europe from 1990 to 2019. Our estimation indicates that the excess death burden from exposure to ambient PM2.5 declined across Europe at a rate of 10,000 deaths per year. Excess deaths from fires increased by more than 100% during the same period.

April 2024

A better integration of health and economic impact assessments of climate change

Climate change could lead to high economic burden for individuals (i.e. low income and high prices). While economic conditions are important determinants of climate change vulnerability, environmental epidemiological studies focus primarily on the direct impact of temperature on morbidity and mortality without accounting for climate-induced impacts on the economy. More integrated approaches are needed to provide comprehensive assessments of climate-induced direct and indirect impacts on health.

24 February 2024

Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels

Older adults are generally among the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population ageing on these trends remains unclear. Our findings indicate that population ageing constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the ageing population.

February 2024

Ozone-related acute excess mortality projected to increase in the absence of climate and air quality controls consistent with the Paris Agreement

Ground-level ozone—a product of reactions between other atmospheric pollutants—can trigger coughing and shortness of breath, worsen asthma, and cause damage to airways. Short-term exposure to ground-level ozone can lead to respiratory and cardiovascular disease and has been linked to higher rates of premature death. Climate change and changes in the atmospheric concentrations of ozone precursor pollutants are projected to increase ground-level ozone in many parts of the world.

February 2024

High-resolution projections of ambient heat for major European cities using different heat metrics

Heat stress in cities is projected to increase due to climate change strongly. The high population density in cities and the urban heat island effect will exacerbate the associated health risks. However, impacts are still uncertain, which is among other factors due to the existence of multiple metrics for quantifying ambient heat and the typically rather coarse spatial resolution of climate models. Here we investigate projections of ambient heat for 36 major European cities based on a recently produced ensemble of regional climate model simulations for Europe (EURO-CORDEX) at 0.11° spatial resolution (∼ 12.5 km).

February 2024

Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with cold spells during 2000–19: a three-stage modelling study

Exposure to cold spells is associated with mortality. However, little is known about the global mortality burden of cold spells.

February 2024

High-resolution projections of ambient heat for major European cities using different heat metrics

Heat stress in cities is projected to strongly increase due to climate change. The associated health risks will be exacerbated by the high population density in cities and the urban heat island effect. However, impacts are still uncertain, which is among other factors due to the existence of multiple metrics for quantifying ambient heat and the typically rather coarse spatial resolution of climate models. Our results emphasise the value of high-resolution climate model simulations for analysing climate extremes at the city level. At the same time, they highlight that improving the predominantly rather simple representations of urban areas in climate models would make their simulations even more valuable for planning adaptation measures in cities.

February 2024

Seasonality of mortality under climate change: a multicountry projection study

Climate change can directly impact temperature-related excess deaths and might subsequently change the seasonal variation in mortality. In this study, we aimed to provide a systematic and comprehensive assessment of potential future changes in the seasonal variation, or seasonality, of mortality across different climate zones.

February 2024

Modification of heat-related effects on mortality by air pollution concentration, at small-area level, in the Attica prefecture, Greece

In our study, we examined the possible modification of the heat effects on total and cause-specific mortality by air pollution at municipality level in the Attica region, Greece, during the warm period of the years 2000 to 2016. Our results support the evidence of elevated heat effects on mortality at higher levels of PM10 and 8 h max O3. Under climate change, any policy lowering air pollution levels will yield significant public health benefits.

January 2024