Heatwaves and air quality have a major impact on heart and lung related diseases in Europe. Air pollution from e.g. traffic, industry and wildfires is one of the important factors that can enhance the adverse health effects of global warming.
So, how will climate change affect air quality in Europe in the future?
Estimated changes in pollutant levels in the future vary significantly depending on the climate model systems and the emission scenarios that are used in different studies. Nevertheless, studies generally agree on the tendency of the changes in pollutant levels due to climate change.
“There is a general consensus among studies that there are additional (co)benefits from mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions in terms of improved air quality.”
That is the main conclusion from an assessment of recent research on the interaction between climate change and air pollution conducted by researchers in the EXHAUSTION project. The assessment highlights projections on air pollution (particulate matter PM2.5 and ozone O3) under different future emission scenarios and time horizons (2030, 2050 and 2100). O3 and PM2.5 are two common air pollutants shown to have a detrimental effect on human health.
“Air pollution due to particulate matter (PM2.5) released from vegetation fires is a notable risk factor for public health. ”
Climate change can affect air pollution both physically and chemically in a way that deteriorates air quality. Climate change can also influence the frequency and intensity of wildfires. Moreover, pollutants in the atmosphere and their precursor emissions can also influence climate (modifying cloud properties, precipitation, and radiation).
The link between heatwaves, air pollution, wildfires, health and climate change. Illustration: Info Design Lab.
Hence, feedbacks between climate change and air pollution should be considered in developing mitigation and adaptation strategies. However, due to the knowledge gaps in this field there are large uncertainties on these feedbacks. To find out more, read the Assessment Report on the link and feedbacks between climate change and air pollution including wildfires – A European perspective that focuses on:
The isolated impacts of climate change on air pollution and natural emissions focusing on Europe in the near future (2030), by mid-century (2050) and by the end of the century (2100),
Impacts of the combined changes in air pollution and emissions on climate,
Impacts of climate change on wildland fires and air pollutant levels,
The role of adaptation and mitigation policies on climate change and air pollution.
Figure 1. Interactions between climate, emissions and air quality (adopted from Jacob and Winner, 2009). The green dashed box shows the different emissions, while the red and the blue arrows show two-way and one-way interactions, respectively.
“In Europe, climate change is expected to increase the probability for forest fires in areas where increase in summertime temperature is accompanied by decrease in precipitation (e.g. Mediterranean). ”
