The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change

Climate change affects human health; however, there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change. Here, we use empirical data from 732 locations in 43 countries to estimate the mortality burdens associated with the additional heat exposure that has resulted from recent human-induced warming, during the period 1991–2018. Across all study countries, we find that 37.0% (range 20.5–76.3%) of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change and that increased mortality is evident on every continent. Burdens varied geographically but were of the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths per year in many locations. Our findings support the urgent need for more ambitious mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize the public health impacts of climate change.

31 May 2021

Heat Stress Indicators in CMIP6: Estimating Future Trends and Exceedances of Impact‐Relevant Thresholds

Global warming is leading to increased heat stress in many regions around the world. An extensive number of heat stress indicators (HSIs) has been developed to measure the associated impacts on human health.

Heat Stress Indicators in CMIP6

AGU.org, Earth's Future

13.02.2021

Air pollution declines during COVID-19 lockdowns mitigate the global health burden

The lockdown response to COVID-19 has resulted in an unprecedented reduction in global economic activity and associated air pollutant levels, especially from a decline in land transportation.

January 2021

Evaluation of CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations of historical surface air temperature extremes using proper evaluation methods

Reliable projections of extremes by climate models are becoming increasingly important in the context of climate change and associated societal impacts.

Find the full publication here.

Environmental Research Letters, Volume 15, Number 12

11.12.2020

Projections of excess mortality related to diurnal temperature range under climate change scenarios: a multi-country modelling study

Various retrospective studies have reported on the increase of mortality risk due to higher diurnal temperature range (DTR). This study projects the effect of DTR on future mortality across 445 communities in 20 countries and regions.

Projections of excess mortality

The Lancet Planetary Health

November 2020

A Satellite-Based Spatio-Temporal Machine Learning Model to Reconstruct Daily PM2.5 Concentrations across Great Britain

Data from satellites, reanalysis, and chemical transport models offer additional information used to reconstruct pollution concentrations at high spatio-temporal resolutions.

20.11.2020

Cardiovascular risks of climate change

Extreme heat events are now more frequent in many parts of the world as a result of climate change. The combined effects of heat, air pollution, individual age, and socioeconomic and health status need to be considered in order to prevent and treat cardiovascular diseases effectively.

Cardiovascular risks of climate change

Nature Reviews Cardiology volume 18, pages1–2(2021)

09.11.2020

Air Conditioning and Heat-related Mortality

Air conditioning has been proposed as one of the key factors explaining reductions of heat-related mortality risks observed in the last decades. However, direct evidence is still limited.

Air Conditioning and Heat-related Mortality

Epidemiology: November 2020 - Volume 31 - Issue 6 - p 779-787

November 2020

Excess mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy: a two-stage interrupted time-series analysis

Italy was the first country outside China to experience the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which resulted in a significant health burden. This study presents an analysis of the excess mortality across the 107 Italian provinces, stratified by sex, age group and period of the outbreak.

Excess mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy

International Journal of Epidemiology, Volume 49, Issue 6

14.10.2020

Nonlinear temperature-suicide association in Japan from 1972 to 2015: Its heterogeneity and the role of climate, demographic, and socioeconomic factors

It has been reported that suicide is associated with ambient temperature; however, the heterogeneity in this association and its underlying factors have not been extensively investigated.

Nonlinear temperature-suicide association in Japan from 1972 to 2015.

ScienceDirect, Environment International, Volume 142

September 2020

Temperature-related excess mortality in German cities at 2 °C and higher degrees of global warming

Investigating future changes in temperature-related mortality as a function of global mean temperature (GMT) rise allows for the evaluation of policy-relevant climate change targets. So far, only few studies have taken this approach, and, in particular, no such assessments exist for Germany, the most populated country of Europe.

Temperature-related excess mortality in German cities

ScienceDirect, Environmental Research, Volume 186

July 2020

Association of Social Distancing, Population Density, and Temperature With the Instantaneous Reproduction Number of SARS-CoV-2 in Counties Across the United States

In this cohort study of 211 counties in 46 states, social distancing, temperate weather, and lower population density were associated with a decrease in the instantaneous reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2.

23.07.2020

COVID-19 lockdowns cause global air pollution declines

We find that, after accounting for meteorological variations, lockdown events have reduced the population-weighted concentration of nitrogen dioxide and particulate matter levels by about 60% and 31% in 34 countries, with mixed effects on ozone. Reductions in transportation sector emissions are largely responsible for the NO2 anomalies.

28.07.2020

Deaths Attributable to Air Pollution in Nordic Countries: Disparities in the Estimates

Particulate matter air pollution is widely considered as the leading environmental cause of premature mortality. However, there are substantial differences in the estimated health burden between the assessments.

05.05.2020

Climate change and the projected burden of future health impacts – The Project EXHAUSTION

This article discusses existing research gaps and introduces the EU project EXHAUSTION which aims to fill at least some of them.

29.02.2020

Ambient carbon monoxide and daily mortality: a global time-series study in 337 cities

This international study is by far the largest epidemiological investigation on short-term CO-related mortality. We found significant associations between ambient CO and daily mortality, even at levels well below current air quality guidelines. Further studies are warranted to disentangle its independent effect from other traffic-related pollutants.

1 April 2021