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Estimating heat-related mortality in near real time for national heatwave plans

Y T Eunice Lo, Dann M Mitchell, Ross Thompson, Emer O'Connell and Antonio Gasparrini

We investigate the novel use of summer temperature-mortality associations established by these models for monitoring heat-related deaths in regions in England in near real time. For four summers in the period 2011–2020, we find that coupling these associations with observed daily mean temperatures results in England-wide heatwave mortality estimates that are consistent with the excess deaths estimated by UK Health Security Agency. However, our results for 2013, 2018 and 2020 highlight that the lagged effects of heat and characteristics of individual summers contribute to disagreement between the two methods.

Estimating heat-related mortality in near real time for national heatwave plans

Environmental Research Letters
3 February 2022
Publication air pollution MORTALITY COVID-19

Differential impact of government lockdown policies on reducing air pollution levels and related mortality in Europe

Schneider, Rochelle, Masselot, Pierre, Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M, Sera, Francesco, Blangiardo, Marta, Forlani, Chiara, Douros, John, Jorba, Oriol, Adani, Mario, Kouznetsov, Rostislav, Couvidat, Florian, Arteta, Joaquim, Raux, Blandine, Guevara, Marc, Colette, Augustin, Barré, Jérôme, Peuch, Vincent-Henri, Gasparrini, Antonio

Previous studies have reported a decrease in air pollution levels following the enforcement of lockdown measures during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, these investigations were mostly based on simple pre-post comparisons using past years as a reference and did not assess the role of different policy interventions. This study contributes to knowledge by quantifying the association between specific lockdown measures and the decrease in NO2, O3, PM2.5, and PM10 levels across 47 European cities.

Differential impact of government lockdown policies on reducing air pollution levels and related mortality in Europe
January 2022
Publication Air temperature cardiopulmonary mortality cardiopulmonary morbidty Health risk

Effects of Air Temperature on Cardiopulmonary Mortality and Morbidity in Europe

Massimo Stafoggia; Francesca De' Donato; Alexandra Schneider; Masna Rai; Siqi Zhang; Susanne Breitner; Antonio Gasparrini; Pierre Masselot; Klea Katsouyanni; Evangelia Samoli; Antonis Analitis; Sofia Zafeiratou; Shilpa Rao; Liliana Vazquez Fernandez; Stefan Agewall

The report “Effects of air Temperature on Cardiopulmonary Mortality and Morbidity in Europe” was prepared as a milestone of the EU Project EXHAUSTION. It summarizes the evidence on the effects of different levels and changes in ambient air temperature on cardiopulmonary (CPD) mortality and morbidity across Europe and puts a spotlight on the vulnerable and susceptible population. It can help stakeholders and policymakers to plan adaptation measures to protect the vulnerable and susceptible population and increase European resilience towards climate change and extreme weather events.

Effects of Air Temperature on Cardiopulmonary Mortality and Morbidity in Europe
30 November 2021
Publication cardiopulmonary morbidty ambient temperature

A systematic review on the association between total and cardiopulmonary mortality/morbidity or cardiovascular risk factors with long-term exposure to increased or decreased ambient temperature

Sofia Zafeiratou, Evangelia Samoli, Konstantina Dimakopoulou, Sophia Rodopoulou, Antonis Analitis, Antonio Gasparrini, Massimo Stafoggia, Francesca De' Donato, Shilpa Rao, Ana Monteiro, Masna Rai, Siqi Zhang, Susanne Breitner, Kristin Aunan, Alexandra Schneider, Klea Katsouyanni

A systematic review

10 June 2021
Publication

Evidences on adaptive mechanisms for cardiorespiratory diseases regarding extreme temperatures and air pollution: A comparative systematic review

Helena Madureira, Maria Pacheco, Carlos Sousa, Ana Monteiro, Francesca De’-Donato, Manuela De-Sario

The objective of this paper is to explore the evidence of adaptive mechanisms for cardiorespiratory diseases regarding extreme temperatures and air pollution by comparing the results of two systematic literature review (SLR) processes sharing the same initial research question but led by two research groups with different academic backgrounds working in the same multidisciplinary team.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666683921000353Evidences on adaptive mechanisms for cardiorespiratory diseases regarding extreme temperatures and air pollution: A comparative systematic review

Geography and Sustainability
12 September 2021
Publication

Combined impacts of climate and air pollution on human health and agricultural productivity

Jana Sillmann, Kristin Aunan, Lisa Emberson, Patrick Bûker, Bob Van Oort, Connie O’Neill, Noelia Otero, Divya Pandey, Anouk Brisebois

Climate change and air pollution can interact to amplify risks to human health and crop production. Closer integration of climate change and air pollution both in terms of impact assessment for human health and agricultural productivity and respective policy development is needed.

Combined impacts of climate and air pollution
3.9.2021
Publication

Mortality risk attributable to wildfire-related PM2·5 pollution: a global time series study in 749 locations

Gongbo Chen, Yuming Guo, Xu Yue, Shilu Tong, Antonio Gasparrini, Michelle L Bell, Ben Armstrong, Joel Schwartz, Jouni J K Jaakkola, Antonella Zanobetti, Eric Lavigne, Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, Haidong Kan, Dominic Royé, Ai Milojevic, Ala Overcenco, Aleš Urban, Alexandra Schneider, Alireza Entezari, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, Ariana Zeka, Aurelio Tobias, Baltazar Nunes, Barrak Alahmad, Bertil Forsberg, Shih-Chun Pan, Carmen Íñiguez, Caroline Ameling, César De la Cruz Valencia, Christofer Åström, Danny Houthuijs, Do Van Dung, Evangelia Samoli, Fatemeh Mayvaneh, Francesco Sera, Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar, Yadong Lei, Hans Orru, Ho Kim, Iulian-Horia Holobaca, Jan Kyselý, João Paulo Teixeira, Joana Madureira, Klea Katsouyanni, Magali Hurtado-Díaz, Marek Maasikmets, Martina S Ragettli, Masahiro Hashizume, Massimo Stafoggia, Mathilde Pascal, Matteo Scortichini, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coêlho, Nicolás Valdés Ortega, Niilo R I Ryti, Noah Scovronick, Patricia Matus, Patrick Goodman, Rebecca M Garland, Rosana Abrutzky, Samuel Osorio Garcia, Shilpa Rao, Simona Fratianni, Tran Ngoc Dang, Valentina Colistro, Veronika Huber, Whanhee Lee, Xerxes Seposo, Yasushi Honda, Yue Leon Guo, Tingting Ye, Wenhua Yu, Michael J Abramson, Jonathan M Samet, Shanshan Li

Many regions of the world are now facing more frequent and unprecedentedly large wildfires. However, the association between wildfire-related PM2·5 and mortality has not been well characterised. We aimed to comprehensively assess the association between short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2·5 and mortality across various regions of the world.

Short-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2·5 was associated with increased risk of mortality. Urgent action is needed to reduce health risks from the increasing wildfires.

Mortality risk attributable to wildfire-related PM2·5 pollution: a global time series study in 749 locations

The Lancet Planetary Health
1 September 2021
Publication

Seasonal variation in mortality and the role of temperature: a multi-country multi-city study

Lina Madaniyazi, Ben Armstrong, Yeonseung Chung, Chris Fook Sheng Ng, Xerxes Seposo, Yoonhee Kim, Aurelio Tobias, Yuming Guo, Francesco Sera, Yasushi Honda,  Antonio Gasparrini, Masahiro Hashizume,

This study suggests that seasonality of mortality is importantly driven by temperature, most evidently in temperate/continental climate zones, and that warmer locations show stronger seasonal variations in mortality, which is related to a stronger effect of temperature.

Seasonal variation in mortality and the role of temperature: a multi-country multi-city study

International Journal of Epidemiology
1 September 2021
Publication

Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study

Qi Zhao, Yuming Guo, Tingting Ye, Antonio Gasparrini, Shilu Tong, Ala Overcenco, Aleš Urban, Alexandra Schneider, Alireza Entezari, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, Antonella Zanobetti, Antonis Analitis, Ariana Zeka, Aurelio Tobias, Baltazar Nunes, Barrak Alahmad, Ben Armstrong, Bertil Forsberg, Shih-Chun Pan, Carmen Íñiguez, Caroline Ameling, César De la Cruz Valencia, Christofer Åström, Danny Houthuijs, Do Van Dung, Dominic Royé, Ene Indermitte, Eric Lavigne, Fatemeh Mayvaneh, Fiorella Acquaotta, Francesca de'Donato, Francesco Di Ruscio, Francesco Sera, Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar, Haidong Kan, Hans Orru, Ho Kim, Iulian-Horia Holobaca, Jan Kyselý, Joana Madureira, Joel Schwartz, Jouni J K Jaakkola, Klea Katsouyanni, Magali Hurtado Diaz, Martina S Ragettli, Masahiro Hashizume, Mathilde Pascal, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho, Nicolás Valdés Ortega, Niilo Ryti, Noah Scovronick, Paola Michelozzi, Patricia Matus Correa, Patrick Goodman, Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, Rosana Abrutzky, Samuel Osorio, Shilpa Rao, Simona Fratianni, Tran Ngoc Dang, Valentina Colistro, Veronika Huber, Whanhee Lee, Xerxes Seposo, Yasushi Honda, Yue Leon Guo, Michelle L Bell, Shanshan Li

Non-optimal temperatures are associated with a substantial mortality burden, which varies spatiotemporally. Our findings will benefit international, national, and local communities in developing preparedness and prevention strategies to reduce weather-related impacts immediately and under climate change scenarios.

Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study
The Lancet Planetary Health
1 July 2021